Coffee stockpiles are lower than ever in Brazil, Gen Z drives the \u2018fourth wave,\u2019 and coffee may help some men with prostate cancer live longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Take a sip and let’s get to it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s not raining in Brazil\u2014and continued lack of rain could see coffee stockpiles fall to a record low. Brazil\u2019s coffee supply could reach just 7 million 60-kilogram bags by March. According to analysts, a healthy number is closer to 9-12 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazil is the world\u2019s largest producer of coffee. The global commodity coffee market rises and falls based on what happens in the country\u2014for better or worse. The current poor outlook adds to a general scarcity of coffee supply, as arabica stockpiles monitored by the US Intercontinental Commodity Exchange<\/a> (ICE) remain at a 23-year low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In February, the head of Cecafe<\/a>, Brazil\u2019s governing body for coffee exporting, said that while supplies were lower than hoped<\/a>, there was \u201cenough to meet demand from local and global industries.\u201d But six months of continued drought has tempered those cautious expectations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Coffee supply is \u201cso low that even if we have a good crop next year, Brazil may just barely have enough to serve demand,\u201d said Nelson Carvalhaes, a Cecafe board member. \u201cWe just need to have the rain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n This delay will continue to push coffee prices upwards, according to analysts. \u201cGlobal prices will continue to go up, and the uncertainty on Brazilian supply is one of the main reasons,\u201d said Guilherme Morya, senior economic analyst for Rabobank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read the full story here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Long headline notwithstanding, global research firm Mintel<\/a> thinks we\u2019re now into coffee\u2019s \u201cfourth wave.\u201d Mintel says the shift in coffee drinking culture is driven by the \u201ceasy-going\u201d approach of Gen Z and the growing demand for at-home coffee options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mintel says the third wave was quality-focused, \u201ca backlash to the highly flavored, commercialized drinks synonymous with second-wave coffee.\u201d But the fourth wave may partly be a response to \u201cthe overly craft (borderline pretentious) nature of third-wave coffee.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Whatever your thoughts on these statements, it\u2019s undeniable that Gen Z, with the help of TikTok, is driving much of the current coffee culture. TikTok influencers are helping to demystify the industry<\/a>, while the app\u2019s reach can at least partly explain the massive shift towards cold coffee drinks. The New York Times<\/em> recently reported that<\/a> \u201cwhile the hashtag #hotcoffee has more than 60 million views on TikTok, #icedcoffee has about six billion on the app and is full of videos of users sharing their complicated iced coffee orders.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n But it\u2019s not just about cold drinks. Much of Starbucks\u2019 recently-announced growth strategy focuses more on drive-thru and delivery than its long-trumpeted identity as a \u201cthird space,\u201d<\/a> or the space where people spend time besides work and home. \u201cStarbucks is unlocking the intersection of convenience and connection,\u201d the company said recently<\/a>, looking to \u201cmeet customers wherever they are\u201d by \u201cexpanding the Third Place experience beyond the physical store.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Starbucks\u2019 new direction connects to the other aspect of Mintel\u2019s fourth wave pitch: coffee will become ever more home-focused as \u201cownership of specialty brewing equipment along with the decline of commutes (due to an increase in remote work) will empower consumers to craft their own specialty coffee drinks at home.\u201d This shift offers opportunities for coffee roasters and complementary categories such as home appliance retailers\u2014Mintel points to Fellow\u2019s recent multi-million funding round<\/a> as evidence of growth in this area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Mintel, \u201cthis bottom-up approach (where trends are set by individual content creators rather than established coffee shops) to fourth-wave coffee will challenge coffee shop culture as influencers primarily share recipes for consumers to follow at home.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read the full story here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018SCA Roaster, Barista and Technician Guilds Seeking New Leadership Council Members\u2019<\/a> – via Daily Coffee News<\/em> An article in Fortune Magazine<\/em> looks at\u2014and applauds\u2014Intelligentsia\u2019s foray into K-cups<\/a>. The article briefly mentions the environmental impact before focusing on how innovative and popular the move has been.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Intelligentsia, one of specialty coffee\u2019s most famous brands, is now majority-owned by Peet\u2019s Coffee, which not coincidentally is a partner brand of Keurig Dr Pepper. Both are subsidiaries of JAB Holding Company, a private German conglomerate with somewhat of a shady past<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The journey to K-cups began when a study conducted by Peet\u2019s Coffee found that Intelligentsia customers \u201cyearned for accessibility to a Keurig-type home brewing system.\u201d However, the same customers were also wary of the quality single-cup brewers, \u201calong with the environmental responsibility around K-cups.\u201d Intelligentsia CEO James McLaughlin says he shares those concerns, although not enough to stop the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The company\u2019s rationale for moving into K-cups is a standard big company justification: <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor us, a lot of good comes from it,\u201d McLaughlin told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, Oatly is bringing back its Big Idea Grant for Coffee<\/a> with this year\u2019s edition offering up to $400,000 in sustainability grants for small US coffee businesses. That \u201cup to\u201d is important because after Daily Coffee News<\/em> published an article about the project, Oatly reached out to clarify that the award pool is not a guaranteed 400k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oatly is the self-proclaimed world\u2019s biggest oat milk company. In 2021, Oatly reported revenue of $643.2 million<\/a>, with an estimated revenue of $800-830 million for 2022. Among Oatly\u2019s shareholders is the Blackstone Group, whose $200 million investment in 2020 brought criticism from environmental groups<\/a> over Blackstone\u2019s links to deforestation. In defending the move, Oatly used similar reasoning to Intelligentsia by arguing that the investment allowed them to increase their reach and \u201chelp us drive the plant-based movement further\u201d and \u201csteer global capital in a more sustainable direction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Researchers from the University of Texas have found that coffee could help<\/a> some men with prostate cancer live longer. The study, published in the journal European Urology Oncology<\/em><\/a>, found an association between a genotype that quickly metabolizes coffee and extended survival from prostate cancer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Using data from the PRACTICAL Consortium database<\/a> with nearly 6,000 patients, a high intake of coffee appeared to be associated with longer prostate cancer-specific survival in those with the CYP1A2 AA genotype.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s worth pointing out that it\u2019s not clear how much longer<\/em>, as the study never gives an exact number in years and repeats that \u201cresults were not statistically significant.\u201d But as Medical Xpress<\/em> notes, research is still in its early stages, and the study itself says that its results \u201cwill require further replication.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lead study author Dr. Justin Gregg of the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston said that while there is interest in how to prevent cancers, there aren\u2019t a lot of recommendations for those already diagnosed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere\u2019s a chance in the future, with additional research, that looking at things like what to do in your diet based on certain patient groups could be something that is used to augment the care of men who are diagnosed with prostate cancer,\u201d Gregg said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018Eight Questions Sustainability-Minded Roasters Should Ask Importers\u2019 by Jim Ngokwey<\/a>\u2018From \u2018Coffeetok\u2019 Influencers to \u2018Textured\u2019 Cold Coffee Drinks, Fourth Wave Coffee is Here, Says Mintel: \u2018Expect to See More Brands Take a Less Serious Approach to Coffee\u201d – via <\/strong>Food Navigator USA<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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